Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource‐Rich Economies

The central bank of a commodity‐exporting small open economy faces the traditional trade‐off between domestic inflation and output gap. The commodity sector introduces a terms‐of‐trade inefficiency that gives rise to an endogenous cost‐push shock, changes the target level for output, reduces the slope of the Phillips curve, and increases the importance of stabilizing the output gap. Optimal monetary policy calls for a reduction of the interest rate following a drop in the oil price. In contrast, a central bank with a mandate to stabilize consumer price inflation raises interest rates to limit the inflationary impact of an exchange rate depreciation.     

Conditional Earnings Conservatism and Corporate Refocusing Activities

We extend standard models of conditional earnings conservatism and adaptation value to the context of the corporate refocusing activities of UK listed companies. This analysis is interesting because refocusing activities are: (1) commonly anticipated by significant negative returns in the financial year(s) before the refocusing event; (2) typically associated with large material charges; and (3) likely to be part of a strategic plan with the internal decision preceding the formal public announcement. We complement Burgstahler and Dichev [1997] by showing how their nonlinear relation between share prices and earnings changes around refocusing events as adaptation options are exercised. Because refocusing events also involve large realized losses and major changes to firms’ strategic plans, we expect to see systematic changes in the timing relations between stock returns and reported earnings. To capture this, we show how the coefficients of Basu's [1997] model of conditional conservatism change around refocusing events.     

致力于全体市民的利益

诺丁汉市拥有人口 ３０万，是英国中东部地区的中心城市。 诺丁汉市市中心美丽诱人，城市经济富有特色，充满活力。 市政府的职责是使全体市民能够享受到城市所创造的巨大利益。这也是我们面临的最大挑战。这在一定程度上取决于建立公共机构与私人机构、社区组织与就业机会、合理化建议与资金可能之间的有效联系。城市的复兴则有赖于通过改变人们的生活方式创造更多的发展机会。 ９０年代以来，就业率强劲增长，特别是服务业就业量迅猛增长，目前已占到我市就业总量的 ８０％以上。总投资约６亿英镑的发展项目正在建设之中，其中包括全国冰…     

Marriage seasonality and the industrious revolution: southern Sweden, 1690–18951

In this article we study the evolution of marriage seasonality in relation to economic change, particularly connected to changes in labour supply and work intensity of the kind implied by the ‘industrious revolution’. The focus is on southern Sweden in 1685–1894, which was a period of agricultural transformation and early industrialization, when we would expect to see an increase in work intensity. The analysis is based on about 120,000 marriages from 117 different parishes. The analysis shows that the seasonality of marriage changed dramatically over time, from a classic grain production pattern, with a marriage peak in late spring and a marriage trough at harvest time, to a much more even seasonality, although with the appearance of a very strong peak in December. This change affected rural rather than urban areas, and was present regardless of differences in institutional settings, and for almost all occupational groups below the elite. The changed seasonality pattern is consistent with increasing work intensity over the year, leaving only the weeks around Christmas as a low season. In addition to the increase in work intensity, the privatization of marriage and the availability of time and resources were also important factors in the changing seasonality pattern.     

THE VARIOUS DIMENSIONS OF COMMODITY DEPENDENCE IN AFRICA

This paper considers whether or not the poor performance of many African countries can be ascribed to a dependency on primary commodity exports. This is a multidimensional question which concerns the Prebisch‐Singer Hypothesis, commodity price volatility, the dependence of GDP on exports and the commodity price elasticity of exchange rates (the so‐called Dutch disease problem). To consider these questions, the paper uses data on 39 commodities and ten African countries. It finds that relative to the price of manufactured goods there is a downward secular trend in less than half of the commodity prices considered. Nonetheless, most commodity prices are highly volatile. Furthermore, in the case of half of the countries considered GDP is dependent on exports. However, the paper finds limited evidence for Dutch disease.     

Efficient Intra-Household Allocations and Distribution Factors: Implications and Identification

This paper provides an exhaustive characterization of testability and identifiability issues in the collective framework in the absence of price variation; it thus provides a theoretical underpinning for a number of empirical works that have been developed recently. We first provide a simple and general test of the Pareto-efficiency hypothesis, which is consistent with all possible assumptions on the private or public nature of goods, all possible consumption externalities between household members, and all types of interdependent individual preferences and domestic production technology. The test is proved to be necessary and sufficient. We then provide conditions for the identification of the sharing rule and the Engel curves of individual household members for a variety of different observational schemes.     

AUDIT PRICING, AUDITOR CHANGES, AND THE WINNER'S CURSE

This paper presents a two-period model of the audit market. In the first period, all auditors have symmetric information and adopt identical bidding strategies. In the process of performing the audit, the incumbent auditor learns the actual costs, thereby becoming informationally advantaged in the second period. In the model presented, unlike earlier ones found in the literature, audit costs include both a component common to all potential auditors and a private component that varies across auditors. The common component of auditor costs gives rise to a ‘winner's curse’ scenario. A winner's curse is said to exist because a non-incumbent bidder who does not take into account the superior information of the incumbent would be expected to generate a loss from winning the audit engagement. The adjustment of bids by sophisticated auditors to compensate for the winner's curse is shown to play a significant role in determining the degree of low-balling (first-period price cuts) and auditor turnover. In the model, low-balling is not associated with loss of audit quality. Additionally, it is shown that it is in the interest of the client to structure audit selection in a manner that gives rise to low-balling.     

Employment and Length of the Working Week in a Unionized Economy in which Hours of Work Influence Productivity*

Conditions are derived for signing the employment effects in a unionized economy of a legislated cut in hours when productivity depends on the number of hours worked each week. Aggregate data suggest that employment will generally increase after a small cut in hours for the UK but the employment effect is ambiguous for Australia. Disaggregated data for Australia suggest that the employment effect of a cut in hours is often positive However, any cut in hours imposed on a monopoly union, without a cut in pay, will unambiguously lead to a drop in employment